The Impact of Generative AI

Value Creation and Destruction
Generative AI
Autor:in

Jan Kirenz

Veröffentlichungsdatum

17. Oktober 2024

Generative AI has emerged as a powerful catalyst for productivity in numerous sectors. By automating routine tasks and augmenting human capabilities, it enables professionals to focus on more strategic and creative aspects of their work.

Generative AI is driving productivity gains across various business functions:

  1. Content Creation and Marketing
  2. Software Development and Coding
  3. Customer Service and Support
  4. Data Analysis and Insights Generation
  5. Product Design and Innovation

However, Generative AI is not just about automation; it’s a powerful tool for enhancing creativity across multiple disciplines. By providing new avenues for ideation and content creation, it enables professionals to push the boundaries of creative expression.

Several industries have already leveraged generative AI to boost their creative output:

Research indicates that generative AI initiatives are associated with substantial boosts in productivity and creativity. Let’s examine some studies that support this finding.

Productivity Effects in Writing Tasks

Recent advancements in generative artificial intelligence, such as ChatGPT, have raised questions about their impact on productivity and labor markets. A study by Noy and Zhang (2023) provides experimental evidence on the effects of ChatGPT on mid-level professional writing tasks [1].

This section summarizes their key findings and discusses the implications for the future of work in the context of generative AI.

A study by MIT and Stanford researchers found that generative AI tools like ChatGPT can increase productivity by up to 40% for certain tasks, particularly in areas requiring creative and analytical thinking.

Experimental Design

The researchers conducted an online experiment with 444 college-educated professionals from various occupations, including marketers, grant writers, consultants, data analysts, HR professionals, and managers. Participants were assigned two occupation-specific, incentivized writing tasks, with half of them given access to ChatGPT for the second task.

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    A[444<br>College<br>-educated<br>Professionals] --> B[Task 1:<br>Occupation<br>-specific<br>Writing]
    B --> C{Random<br>Assignment}
    C -->|50%| D[Task 2:<br>Without ChatGPT]
    C -->|50%| E[Task 2:<br>With ChatGPT]
    
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Experimental Design

  1. Participants: 444 college-educated professionals
  2. Tasks: Two occupation-specific writing tasks (20-30 minutes each)
  3. Treatment: Random 50% given access to ChatGPT for the second task
  4. Evaluation: Output quality assessed by experienced professionals (blinded)
  5. Incentives: High-powered incentives for producing high-quality work
  6. Measures: Time taken, output quality, job satisfaction, self-efficacy, and beliefs about automation

Results

The experiment revealed a significant boost in productivity when participants had access to ChatGPT.

The charts above illustrate two critical aspects of the study: The treatment group’s improvements in both time and quality far outpaced the control group’s modest gains, highlighting AI’s transformative potential.

Time Efficiency

  • Control Group: The control group, representing traditional content creation methods without ChatGPT, shows a slight improvement in time efficiency from pre-treatment (30 minutes) to post-treatment (27 minutes).

  • Treatment Group: The AI-assisted group demonstrates a dramatic reduction in time taken, dropping from 30 minutes pre-treatment (without ChatGPT) to just 17 minutes post-treatment (with ChatGPT). This represents a substantial 37% decrease in time required for content creation.

Content Quality

  • Control Group: There’s a modest improvement in grades for the control group, rising from 3.6 pre-treatment to 3.8 post-treatment.

  • Treatment Group: The AI-assisted group shows a remarkable increase in content quality, with grades jumping from 3.6 pre-treatment to 4.5 post-treatment. This 0.9-point increase represents a significant enhancement in content quality.

The study also found that lower-ability workers experienced both increases in grades and decreases in time spent, while higher-ability workers maintained their grade levels while substantially reducing time spent.

Furthermore, the researchers found that ChatGPT primarily substituted for worker effort rather than complementing worker skills.

  • 68% of treated participants submitted ChatGPT’s initial output without editing
  • On average, treated participants were active for only 3 minutes after pasting ChatGPT text
  • No correlation between post-paste activity time and final grade
  • Treated respondents did not receive higher grades than raw ChatGPT output

Limitations

The study provides valuable insights into the potential impact of generative AI on professional writing tasks. However, it’s important to consider the limitations of the experiment:

  1. Tasks were relatively short and self-contained, potentially inflating ChatGPT’s usefulness
  2. The experiment captures only immediate effects, not long-term or general equilibrium impacts
  3. Effects may vary by occupation, task complexity, and skill level

Despite these limitations, the study suggests that generative AI technologies like ChatGPT have the potential to significantly impact productivity and labor markets in the near future.

Value Creation and Destruction

A scientific experiment conducted by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in collaboration with scholars from Harvard Business School, MIT Sloan School of Management, the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and the University of Warwick has revealed crucial insights into how people interact with generative AI, particularly in professional settings [2].

Experiment Design

  • 758 junior consultants
  • Worldwide participation
  • Up to four years of work experience on average

Two sets of tasks, each completed by a separate group of participants:

  1. Creative Product Innovation
    • Brainstorm ideas for new products
    • Develop business cases
    • Write persuasive memos
  2. Business Problem Solving
    • Identify channels and brands to optimize revenue and profitability
    • Based on fictitious company data and executive interviews

Participants randomly assigned to one of the groups:

  • Treatment group: Used GPT-4
  • Control group: No GPT-4 use

Human graders (BCG consultants and business school students):

  • “Blinded” grading process
  • GPT-4 used for independent grading to ensure consistency

Key Findings

When using GPT-4 for creative product innovation, about 90% of participants improved their performance, converging on a level 40% higher than those working without GPT-4. However, for business problem-solving tasks, participants using GPT-4 performed 23% worse than those not using the tool.

Perhaps somewhat counterintuitively, current GenAI models tend to do better on creative tasks; it is easier for LLMs to come up with creative, novel, or useful ideas based on the vast amounts of data on which they have been trained.

Where there’s more room for error is when LLMs are asked to weigh nuanced qualitative and quantitative data to answer a complex question. Given this shortcoming, GPT-4 was likely to mislead participants if they relied completely on the tool, and not also on their own judgment, to arrive at the solution to the business problem-solving task (this task had a “right” answer).

Implications

To keep pace with rapidly evolving AI capabilities, organizations should:

  1. Develop a “generative AI lab” for continuous experimentation.
  2. Regularly reassess the collaboration model between humans and AI.
  3. Be prepared for counterintuitive or uncomfortable findings.

Also, organizations need to revise mindsets and approaches to work, treating AI output as a plausible final draft rather than a first draft needing revision.

Success in the age of AI will largely depend on an organization’s ability to learn and change faster than ever before. By understanding the nuances of how people create and destroy value with generative AI, business leaders can navigate this transformative technology and harness its potential for competitive advantage.

State of AI Adoption

In May 2024, McKinsey released a comprehensive report on the state of AI adoption and its impact on businesses worldwide [3]. This study, based on a survey of 1,363 participants across various industries and regions, provides valuable insights into the rapid growth of generative AI (gen AI) and its emerging role in creating business value.

Survey Methodology

The comprehensive survey provides a robust foundation for understanding the current landscape of AI and gen AI adoption across diverse business environments.

Aspect Details
Time Period February 22 to March 5, 2024
Participants 1,363 respondents
Scope Full range of regions and industries; various company sizes; diverse functional specialties

Key Findings

Surge in AI and Gen AI Adoption

The study reveals a dramatic increase in AI adoption, with 72% of respondents reporting AI use in at least one business function, up from around 50% in previous years. Notably, gen AI adoption has nearly doubled since the last survey, with 65% of respondents now regularly using gen AI in their organizations.

Widespread Personal Use of Gen AI

The survey indicates a significant increase in personal use of gen AI among respondents:

  • 31% regularly use gen AI for work (up from 22% in 2023)
  • 17% use gen AI both for work and outside of work (up from 12% in 2023)
  • Only 32% report having no exposure to gen AI (down from 42% in 2023)

This trend suggests that gen AI is rapidly becoming integrated into both professional and personal spheres.

Business Functions Leveraging Gen AI

Gen AI adoption is most prevalent in specific business functions:

  1. Marketing and sales (34% adoption)
  2. Product and/or service development (23% adoption)
  3. IT (17% adoption)

These areas align with previous research indicating where gen AI could generate the most value.

Emerging Value Creation

Organizations are beginning to see tangible benefits from gen AI implementation:

  • Cost reductions are most commonly reported in human resources
  • Revenue increases (>5%) are most frequently seen in supply chain and inventory management

Risk Awareness and Mitigation

The survey highlights growing awareness of gen AI-related risks:

  • Inaccuracy is the most recognized and experienced risk (63% consider it relevant, up from 56% in 2023)
  • Intellectual property infringement and cybersecurity are also significant concerns
  • 44% of respondents report experiencing at least one negative consequence from gen AI use

Implementation Strategies

Organizations are adopting various approaches to implement gen AI:

  • About 50% of reported gen AI uses utilize off-the-shelf, publicly available models with little customization
  • The remainder involve significant customization or development of proprietary models
  • Implementation timelines vary, with most projects taking 1-4 months from launch to production

Characteristics of High Performers

The study identifies a small group of “gen AI high performers” who attribute more than 10% of their EBIT to gen AI use. These organizations:

  • Use gen AI in more business functions (average of 3 vs. 2 for others)
  • Are more likely to customize or develop proprietary gen AI models
  • Pay more attention to gen AI-related risks and follow best practices for risk mitigation
  • Experience and address a wider range of challenges in capturing value from gen AI

As the technology continues to evolve rapidly, staying informed about the latest AI developments and best practices will be essential for digital marketing professionals to maximize the potential of these powerful tools while mitigating associated risks.

Job Landscape

As generative AI reshapes various industries, it’s crucial to understand its impact on job roles and required skills.

Job Replacement?

McKinsey’s analysis finds that generative AI has dramatically increased the potential for automating existing work activities. A recent report estimates that generative AI and other current technologies could theoretically automate 60-70% of the time workers spend on present-day tasks [4].

The jump in automation potential is largely attributed to generative AI’s advanced natural language capabilities, which enable it to take on many cognitive and language-based tasks previously thought to be the exclusive domain of humans. This expanded automation potential is expected to impact knowledge workers and higher-wage occupations more than previous waves of automation technology.

However, a report from Deloitte AI Institute emphasizes that generative AI is not replacing jobs, but rather changing the tasks and skills we use to get work done [5].

This shift in work dynamics is illustrated in the following diagram:

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flowchart LR
    subgraph SKILLS["Skills"]
        S["Enable us to<br>carry out tasks"]
    end
    subgraph TASKS["Tasks"]
        T["Activities performed to<br>achieve work outcomes"]
    end
    subgraph WORK["Work"]
        W["The outcome<br>created"]
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    TASKS --> WORK

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Skills, Tasks, and Work Flow

As shown, generative AI is affecting the skills and tasks which influence work outcome, necessitating a reevaluation of how we approach work and skill development.

Transformation of Work Roles

The World Economic Forum’s assertion that AI will create 97 million new jobs by 2025 while displacing 85 million jobs highlights the transformative impact of AI on the job market [6]. This shift is prompting a reevaluation of roles across industries:

  1. Content Creators are becoming AI Prompt Engineers and Content Curators.
  2. Software Developers are evolving into AI-Assisted Code Optimizers.
  3. Data Analysts are transforming into AI Strategy Orchestrators.
  4. Customer Service Representatives are becoming AI-Human Interaction Specialists.

Emerging Skills for an AI-Enhanced Workplace

To thrive in this new landscape, professionals across industries need to develop new skills:

  1. AI Literacy: Understanding AI capabilities and limitations.
  2. Ethical AI Usage: Ensuring responsible and transparent use of AI.
  3. Human-AI Collaboration: Effectively working alongside AI tools.
  4. Complex Problem Solving: Focusing on issues that require human judgment and creativity.
  5. Emotional Intelligence: Enhancing skills that AI cannot easily replicate.

These points illustrate the evolution of workplace skills in the age of generative AI, highlighting the new competencies that professionals need to develop across various industries.

Reskilling and Upskilling Initiatives

To address the changing skill requirements, organizations and educational institutions are investing in reskilling and upskilling programs:

  • Amazon’s $700 million investment in upskilling 100,000 employees in AI and machine learning [7].
  • Google’s AI education initiatives for professionals across various fields [8].
  • The World Economic Forum’s “Reskilling Revolution” initiative, aiming to provide one billion people with better education, skills, and jobs by 2030 [9].

These programs aim to equip the workforce with the necessary skills to leverage generative AI effectively in their roles and adapt to the changing job market.

Conclusion

Generative AI is fundamentally transforming business and society, offering opportunities for enhanced productivity and creativity while reshaping job roles.

As the technology continues to evolve, individuals and organizations that can adapt and leverage these tools effectively will be well-positioned to thrive in the AI-enhanced landscape of the future. However, this transformation also brings challenges, including ethical considerations and the need for continuous learning and adaptation.

As we move forward, it will be crucial to harness the power of generative AI responsibly, ensuring that its benefits are realized while mitigating potential risks and inequalities.

References

[1] Noy, S., & Zhang, J. (2023). “Experimental Evidence on the Productivity Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence.” Link

[2] Boston Consulting Group (2023). “How People Can Create—and Destroy—Value with Generative AI.” Link

[3] McKinsey & Company. (2024). “The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value.” Link

[4] Chui, M., et al. (2023). “The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier. McKinsey Global Institute.” Link

[5] Deloitte (2023). “Generative AI and the Future of Work. Preparing your organization for the boundless potential of AI in the workplace and its impact on jobs.” Link

[6] World Economic Forum. (2020). “The Future of Jobs Report 2020.” Link

[7] Amazon. (2019). “Amazon Pledges to Upskill 100,000 U.S. Employees for In-Demand Jobs by 2025.” Link

[8] Google. (2023). “Grow with Google.” Link

[9] World Economic Forum. (2020). “The Reskilling Revolution: Better Skills, Better Jobs, Better Education for a Billion People by 2030.” Link